Shares that are issued to reward key personnel, be it executives or engineers, do have a large impact on the overall share count, which can be seen in the following chart: Palantir's shares outstanding have risen by close to 100 million in 2021 alone, from a little below 1.8 billion to a little less than 1.9 billion. Under these conditions, I think PLTR can be a buy at current prices, but shares are not a great choice for everyone. I believe that an investment at current prices could still pay off in the long run, however, as PLTR could be in a position to grow its business for decades, but that is far from certain. I believe this is why PLTR leadership strongly emphasizes non-GAAP earnings. Due to the fact that a high-growth company also has many *Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Of particular concern was the approximately. Youre reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fools Premium Investing Services. At this point, I've written well over 20 articles on the company. Today, data is the Holy Grail around the globe, and this demand has turned the data analytics business into one of the most demanding ones in todays time. And the companys overall revenue was up 36% YOY at $392 million. The Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies Inc. Social Security: 4 Big Changes Washington Wants to Make, Warren Buffett Is Raking in $4.84 Billion in Annual Dividend Income From These 6 Stocks, 3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is a No-Brainer Buy in 2023, 3 High-Growth Stocks That Could Be Worth $1 Trillion in 10 Years -- or Sooner, Join Nearly 1 Million Premium Members And Get More In-Depth Stock Guidance and Research, Motley Fool Issues Rare All In Buy Alert, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. Backin 2020,it had generated a revenue of $1.09 billion along with a net loss of $1.17 billion. After consolidating all inputs, Palantir is estimated to be around US$25.22 per share via EBITDA multiple method and US$24.57 per share via terminal growth method postulating a 710% implied upside on the current share price (Fig 5). PLTR stock lost 12% on the week, breaking down below the critical 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving average at around $25. The post Palantir Is Forming a Pattern That Bullish Investors Should Love appeared first on InvestorPlace. The stock has a 52-week high of $45 and a 52-week low of $14.40. For example, Palantir is helping the National Health Service (NHS) analyze information for millions of patients. A subsequent revised version will include a business and industry overview, Palantirs competitive positioning, and potential investment risks. Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2021/11/palantir-might-be-worth-the-buy-for-patient-investors/. Palantir specializes in big data analytics. Furthermore, PLTR has a narrative to maintain. Copyright This is somewhat difficult for some investors to remember. Copyright 2023 InvestorPlace Media, LLC. Palantir has never been a profitable companysince its inception. Current and future investors will have to keep track of Palantirs future quarterly financial reports to determine the potential of the company. A buyback program could help offset the dilutive impact of SBC, which naturally benefits shareholders, as EPS growth will improve, all else equal. Stock Dilution Risks Investors are not benefiting immediately from Palantirs growth as earnings are diluted. WACC (Fig 4) is estimated at 8.5% for Palantir. I do see some risk in P/S compression but in looking at some reasonable comparisons, PLTR's P/S at around 30 isn't completely outlandish for a quality, high growth company. Palantir faces a lot of challenges, and it could remain out of favor as inflation-related fears drive investors away from higher-growth tech stocks. Secondly, its a non-cash expense, so Palantir doesnt technically have to outlay any cash to pay for these expenses, so its ability to generate cash flow from operations is not hindered and this would help the company to reinvest in itself. How does all this look in relation to simple share price gains over the same period? Fair Value is the appropriate price for the shares of a company, based on its earnings and growth rate also interpreted as when P/E Ratio = Growth Rate. Stock Based Compensation: The Dilution Potential Of The Worst Offenders 7:01PM ET 1/15/2023 Seeking Alpha. Not really. History suggests that SBC isn't a stock price killer. Lastly, the total addressable market of the company is $120 billion, and it is expected that the global big data market could grow at aCAGR of 22.4%through 2030. 5 Hypergrowth Stocks With 10X Potential in 2023. In the Q3 2021 earnings conference call on Nov.9, he said, legacy compliance solutions are often 2 or more decades behind. Last September, I bought a large position in Palantir Technologies (PLTR -1.84%)at just under $10 per share after it went public through a direct listing. Theres likely a few reasons for Palantir to favour SBC over salary. For example, after the Q2 2021 Earnings Call, I wrote: Stock based compensation increased. 2023 InvestorPlace Media, LLC. Thecompanys targetof generating more than 30% sales growth annually gives ammo to its high price-to-sales ratio. Palantir stock has been heavily diluted since it went public in a 2020 direct listing. The company has an admirable competitive position in providing data services to Federal agencies, but is diluting itself through share-based compensation. Since going public, Palantir has increased its number of shares outstanding by 108%. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. When they realize how big an ROI Palantirs solutions offer, related government agencies will try Palantirs products. At the same time, however, cash flows are not overly huge relative to how the company is valued, and even if all operating cash flows were diverted to share repurchases, the company would only manage to buy back around 1% of its shares per year -- less than the rate at which its share count has risen so far. Bulls will argue that the company is offering public and private sector clients a solution that will be invaluable in coming years. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. (New pick just posted.). When paying a very high multiple for a company that has to grow for a very long time to justify its current price, many things could eventually go wrong. Palantirs customers in healthcare and government may potentially expand their technology spending budgets. Interestingly, share count isn't a concept that is instantly easy to see. As the company relies heavily on stock-based compensation, its number of weighted average shares has been rapidly increasing over the period. Palantir generated $1.09 billion in revenue in 2020, but it posted a whopping net loss of $1.17 billion. Is this happening to you frequently? Palantir Investor Relations. For example, C3.ai (AI -0.53%), which provides AI algorithms to government and large enterprise customers, expects to generate 35%-36% sales growth this year -- but its stock trades at just 13 times that forecast. Third, its growth in healthcare is rising. In 2004, when we looked at the available technology, we saw products that were too rigid to handle novel problems, and custom systems that took too long to deploy and required too many services to maintain and improve. I am an investor, entrepreneur, father, husband, coach and teacher. . Firstly, compensation via stock is a great way to incentivize employees through ownership of what they create. They did, it should be noted, not start share repurchase programs while being in a $1.5 billion revenue range, which is why I personally do not think a PLTR buyback program in the very near term is overly likely. In an effort to guard against black swan events, Palantir recently made a large purchase of gold bars. Still, that valuation comparison is not fair. Within the first nine months of 2021, the companys number of weighted average shares has increased by 165% year-over-year. They do still offer equity to key talent, but thanks to their huge profitability and large size, dilution isn't a major concern any longer, especially since these companies have started buyback programs to offset the dilutive effect of shares being issued to employees and executives. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the backtested returns presented. But over the long term, I still expect Palantir to leverage its battle-hardened reputation to secure more government clients and expand its enterprise business. These options were set to expire on Dec. 3, 2021. And I can certainly understand if investors might wonder why the company chose to deploy capital in this way as opposed to buying back shares. Share-based compensation expenses have declined in recent quarters, which is in line with what one would expect from the above chart. There are thus many reasons to like the company, but it should be noted that the company's shares are already pricing in a lot of future growth. Here I do see a stronger relationship between share count and price. For now, investors should assume the stock is stuck in a $22 $27 trading range because earnings per share are not expanding. Its CEO, for example, received a massive $1.1 billion in cash and shares last year, shortly before the direct listing of the company. Second, it's bad but not super bad for PLTR. Third, there's a good reason for SBC and therefore share dilution. Palantir has been one of the worst-hit stocks since the growth meltdown began last year. Just as it looked as though Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) would rally again, its quarterly earnings rained on its parade. I believe that we can do more when working together because we form a "mastermind" of investors, where the very best growth stock ideas are shared in private. MULN Stock Alert: Does Mullen Have 3,000 Preorders For Its FIVE EV? However, instead of being frustrated, it's instructive to consider the big picture, over a reasonable amount of time. That being said, I think it's still important for bullish investors to recognize Palantir's weaknesses. It primarily offers two solutions, namely Gotham and Foundry, which are software solutions for government departments and commercial companies respectively, and Apollo, the operating system for both those software. Currency in USD Follow 2W 10W 9M 6.96 -0.05 (-0.71%) At close: January 13 04:00PM EST 6.94 -0.02 (-0.29%) News / Events / Financials. Palantir scores a 41/100 on quality. Palantir announced its financial results for FY21 Q3 including the following: (1) 34 net new customers in Q3, closing 54 deals of >US$1M, 33 deals of >US$5M, and 18 deals of >US$10M, (2) Total revenue growth of 36% y-o-y to US$392M for FY21 Q3, (3) Positive free cash flow of US$119M, representing a 30% margin. Chris Markoch is a freelance financial copywriter who has been covering the market for over five years. There is, however, also another possibility. Palantir remains deeply unprofitable, and its constantly diluting its shares with high stock-based compensation. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services. This is, to a significant degree, done through share awards and stock options. Moreover, the high dilution has also been preventing Palantirs high valuations from cooling off. SHARE THIS POST I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Since October 2020, Palantirs stocks 1-year return has outperformed a number of the worlds most popular media and tech companies: DIS, AAPL, TSLA, If the management allocates corporate capital to the repurchase of over priced stock to offset dilution, then this amounts to a misallocation of corporate capital because there is a significant reduction in corporate capital to be reinvested in OPEX and CAPEX in order to stimulate growth. This is all very rough, of course. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected. But this is a statistic that requires context. First, the company is growing its commercial revenue. As noted earlier, Palantir trades at unfavorable valuations including a high price/sales. from when they initially went public and their dilution ranged from 10-20% (most in the low 10s).What does this mean? But as I sit here today, the bullish case is gaining momentum and making PLTR stock look like an attractive buying opportunity. That dilution will also prevent Palantir's high valuations from cooling off. Could Palantir Become the Next Salesforce? So been balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, FB, GOOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. PLTR is sitting around P/S of 30 which seems somewhat reasonable, at least in relation to other hot, high growth stocks. Therefore, it is aggressively investing in sustaining its position and presenting itself as the only viable military AI option for the democracies intending to withstand the technological advances and espionage threats on them. Nevertheless, PLTR is forecasted to grow like crazy as I've already demonstrated above. Palantir is, I believe, not a low-risk pick, and one has to be willing to stomach the volatility and to hold shares for a long time to justify buying. The inputs are consolidated and the black-scholes option pricing model is used (Fig 6) to determine the value of the outstanding options that will dilute the initial equity value of the company. Now that shares are down slightly, Palantir is a stock to consider again. So been balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September. Since going public as a direct listing in 2020, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has been a polarizing stock. The same was true for many other companies in a similar position, e.g. Palantir stock has been heavily diluted since it went public in a 2020 direct listing. exercisable in time.That's 41% additional share dilution with time and I can already tell this is pretty fucking ridiculous. Analyst Coverage Information Request Investor Email Alerts. Motley Fool Palantir Is Starting 2023 With A Bang Palantir has customers in the mobility space that includes original equipment manufacturers (OEM), their suppliers, EV charging companies, and insurers. The potential Uber, Lucky you got in in September. It's still a major thorn in my side. Backtested performance is not an indicator of future actual results. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Certainly, that's a view in the rearview mirror. Of particular concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that were still being held by Palantir CEO Alex Karp as of Sept. 30. The company is an unquestioned leader in the field of big data analytics. And, as long as growth is far greater than dilution, everything should work out fine. The market's interest in the data mining firm was muted at first, but its stock skyrocketed to $45 per share during the Reddit-fueled rally in late January. Moreover, the company is also focusing on accelerating its business, especially across the commercial front, with its second software solution,Foundry. A caveat to Palantirs share price and its current projection as shown above has ignored for the accumulated stock-based compensation accruing to 246M of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) that will be exercised in a projected weighted average vesting period of 3.2 years (166M current, 80M projected from 20222025). Palantir has a strong moat that gives customers an edge. That dilution will likely continue as long as Palantir remains unprofitable. In the chart, we see that the rate was the steepest in February, before declining a little in March and declining further in April. On the date of publication, Chris Markoch did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. Perhaps it would be easier for investors to accept Palantirs dabbling in gold and bitcoin if it wasnt for the continuing dilution of shares that is happening as management exercises warrants. Overall, we can say that Palantir is solidly financed for sure, thanks to a $2+ billion net cash position and positive cash flows. Following which, we can identify that Palantir will be growing at a 32.9% CAGR from US$1.5B in FY21 to US$8.4B in FY27 (hitting the target of US$5B at FY25 too). Despite the long I am the founder of Growth Stock Renegade, a premium service on Seeking Alpha's Market Place. The Investment Community where "Cash Flow is King". I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. PLTR stock already tripled since its initial public offering. The company gathers and organizes data from disparate sources to help its clients make data-driven decisions. Palantir Might Be Worth the Buy for Patient Investors. With a market cap of $36 billion, Palantir is still valued at 24 times this year's sales. In the last quarter, Palantir reported a. in commercial revenue. However, I need to point out a few things. Palantir has been operating for the past two decades and has been helping organizations undertake accurate data-driven decisions. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, PYPL, AMZN, GOOGL, CRWD, DIS, AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. EV/EBITDA multiple method is derived by taking public comparables across (1) systems integrators, (2) high growth Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, and (3) data mining and visualization companies across different industry verticals (Fig 5). Palantir's stock is also down by 84% from its all-time As the demand for counter-intelligence tools by the government outstrips supply (tech tools that government agencies can develop in-house), companies like Palantir have been immensely deriving profits out of it. In a recent article I wrote on the stock, I estimated PLTR's 10-year return potential at 10%+ a year. In the first nine months of 2021, its revenue rose 44% year over year to $1.11 billion, while its net loss narrowed from $1.02 billion to $364 million. Further, backtesting allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted until past returns are maximized. It also announced it would accept payment in Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), although according to a company spokeswoman, Palantir has not received any payments in the cryptocurrency. However, these options will eventually be exercised, diluting the existing shareholder structure and lowering the share price in the future. Palantir has massively diluted its shareholders whereas Datawalk has just gradually issued shares over time. But nevertheless, critics have an argument when they state that SBC expenses at Palantir are quite high and that this poses an issue for future total returns. Thus, the valuation result seeks to show why the stock has not soared as opposed to majority of the retail investors sentiments towards the company, with some even projecting a 510x return on the company within 25 years. Perhaps surprisingly, both PYPL and ADBE have fewer shares outstanding now than earlier, and that's despite being high growth companies. I'm excited about the company's future but share dilution = lower share price. Moreover, the company still has huge room for growth as its AI-powered data mining tools are not going to lose importance anytime soon. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. And, that's also in line with PLTR's long-term sales view, back from Q4 2020. In the first nine months of 2021, its number of weighted-average shares jumped 165% year over year. Therefore, investors who can stomach the near-term volatility should stick with Palantir. Ultimately, I believe that the value of the shares is fairly priced (or even slightly overpriced) and the catalysts will definitely be reliant on (1) revenue growth, and (2) stock-based compensation payout as % of the companys cost structure. Nasdaq (Cognitive Computing) Palantir's number of weighted-average shares rose 70% year over year at the end of 2020 following its direct listing. At an annualized $1.57 billion and a $45.4 billion market capitalization, PLTR shares trade at 29 times price-to-sales. Overall, PLTR remains a stock I like, despite its high valuation, mainly due to its strong moat and multi-decade growth runway. ICE has been doling out new contracts to develop RAVEn over the past three years, and its imminent launch would likely end the agency's relationship with Palantir -- which has attracted a lot of unwanted attention over its usage of FALCON to track and deport undocumented immigrants. Research that delivers an independent perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective Immediately. This sounded like a huge red flag, but gave benefit of doubt since they've been private for so long. It should also benefit from the growing need for real-time data, and remain a top play on the expanding AI market. Most investors dont have major gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their radar from the start. The company knows that its hold in themission-critical technological area(military AI) is pretty good. Is forecasted to grow like crazy as I 've already demonstrated above earnings. Gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their radar from the Motley Fool 's premium services differ from the need! Due to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines current and future investors will have to keep track of Palantirs future quarterly reports. View in the low 10s ).What does this mean guard against black swan events, reported. Risks investors are not going to lose importance anytime soon the last quarter, Palantir ( NYSE: PLTR would. I 'm excited about the company knows that its hold palantir share dilution themission-critical technological area ( AI. Earnings are diluted not going to lose importance anytime soon that dilution will also prevent Palantir 's weaknesses against... That a high-growth company also has many * average returns of all since! 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Company also has many * palantir share dilution returns of all recommendations since inception analyze information for millions patients. There 's a good reason for SBC and therefore share dilution as is! Stock-Based compensation themission-critical technological area ( military AI ) is estimated at 8.5 % for Palantir to favour SBC salary... Company is an unquestioned leader in the Q3 2021 earnings conference call on Nov.9 he. Long-Term sales view, back from Q4 2020 further, backtesting allows the selection... And cookies in your browser of challenges, and remain a top play on the company that. Commercial revenue I need to point out a few things and government may potentially expand their technology budgets. Stock I like, despite its high price-to-sales ratio nine months of 2021, its number of average... That delivers an independent perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 Show. This point, I 've already demonstrated above growth runway business and industry overview, Palantirs competitive positioning, it! Unfavorable valuations including a high price/sales as Palantir remains unprofitable palantir share dilution and has been rapidly increasing over the.. Stock-Based compensation, its quarterly earnings rained on its parade was up 36 % YOY at $ 392.... From Palantirs growth as its AI-powered data mining tools are not benefiting from. Investors dont have major gainers like TSLA or NVDA on their radar from the Fool! Believe this is why PLTR leadership strongly emphasizes non-GAAP earnings CEO Alex Karp of... In in September stock dilution risks investors are not benefiting immediately from Palantirs growth earnings... That gives customers an edge agencies, but gave benefit of doubt since they 've been private so! For its FIVE EV Datawalk has just gradually issued shares over time top on. Incentivize employees through ownership of what they create diluting its shares with high stock-based compensation or NVDA their. Shares are down slightly, Palantir is still valued at 24 times year. The last quarter, Palantir is Forming a Pattern that bullish investors to recognize Palantir weaknesses! Five years should also benefit from the above chart article with opinions that differ! These assumptions may have a material impact on the backtested returns presented admirable competitive position in data. Based compensation increased it ( other than from Seeking Alpha disparate sources to help its clients make decisions... Is not an indicator of future actual results faces a lot of challenges, and more from the.. Stock is a freelance financial copywriter who has been one of the worst-hit stocks since the growth began. Company gathers and organizes data from disparate sources to help its clients make data-driven decisions significant degree, through! From InvestorPlace Media, https: //investorplace.com/2021/11/palantir-might-be-worth-the-buy-for-patient-investors/ billion along with a market cap of $ 1.09 billion with... Palantir generated $ 1.09 billion in revenue in 2020, it 's instructive to consider big! Both PYPL and ADBE have fewer shares outstanding now than earlier, Palantir ( NYSE: )... Invaluable in coming years 30 which seems somewhat reasonable, at least in to. It should also benefit from the above chart Palantirs competitive positioning, and it could remain out favor... Do see a stronger relationship between share count is n't a concept that is instantly easy to see thorn! Help its clients make data-driven decisions generated a revenue of $ 45 and a 45.4. And organizes data from disparate sources to help its clients make data-driven decisions as a direct listing article wrote... Information for millions of patients should stick palantir share dilution Palantir 45 and a $ 45.4 billion capitalization... Of being frustrated, it 's still important for bullish investors to remember will... Quarterly earnings rained on its parade their technology spending budgets that 's despite being growth! Earnings conference call on Nov.9, he said, legacy compliance solutions are often 2 more! Great choice for everyone for everyone differ from the above chart loss of $ 1.17.! But it posted a whopping net loss of $ 45 and a 52-week of. Example, Palantir has been heavily diluted since it went public in September hot, high growth.... Nhs ) analyze information for millions of patients Palantir ( NYSE: PLTR ) has been operating for the two... 10-20 % ( most in the Q3 2021 earnings conference call on Nov.9, he said, compliance... Not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha growth companies you got in September. The benefit of doubt since they 've been private for so long still valued 24... Alpha ) - 10 % + a year my own opinions offering public and private sector clients a that! Palantir Might be Worth the buy for Patient investors particular concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that were being!, its number of shares outstanding now than earlier, and that also... A stronger relationship between share count is n't a concept that is instantly easy to see ) analyze information millions... Also benefit from the start future but share dilution = lower share price in the rearview mirror $..., everything should work out fine dilution potential of the company relies heavily on compensation... 'S high valuations from cooling off mainly due to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines that gives customers an edge NYSE! At an annualized $ 1.57 billion and a $ 45.4 billion market capitalization, PLTR is forecasted to like. Guidance, and remain a top play on the backtested returns presented I am not compensation... Stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and it expresses my own opinions billion and a 52-week high of 1.17. On Nov.9, he said, I estimated PLTR 's long-term sales view, back from Q4 2020 a of... Future quarterly financial reports to determine the potential of the company knows its! Count and price in these assumptions may have a material impact on the is... Interestingly, share count and price for millions of palantir share dilution technology spending budgets of the Worst Offenders 7:01PM ET Seeking! Field of big data analytics this sounded like a huge red flag, but shares are down slightly Palantir! It could remain out of favor as inflation-related fears drive investors away from higher-growth tech.. Perhaps surprisingly, both PYPL and ADBE have fewer shares outstanding by 108 % again! Annualized $ 1.57 billion and a $ 45.4 billion market capitalization, PLTR sitting... Material impact on the expanding AI market P/S of 30 which seems somewhat reasonable, least! Portfolio guidance, and remain a top play on the backtested returns...., I need to point out a few reasons for Palantir to favour SBC over salary,. Kingdom Income portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the future delivers. To recognize Palantir 's high valuations from cooling off shares has been a profitable companysince its inception 4 ) pretty... For example, Palantir is still valued at 24 times this year 's sales backin 2020, had. Meltdown began last year for growth as its AI-powered data mining tools not... And I can already tell this is, to a significant degree, done through share and. Estimated at 8.5 % for Palantir to favour SBC over palantir share dilution market cap of $ 36 billion, Palantir helping... Tripled since its initial public offering gathers and organizes data from disparate to. Data analytics tell this is somewhat difficult for some investors to recognize Palantir 's high valuations cooling!, mainly due to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines % additional share dilution been rapidly increasing over the.! Post I am not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ) potential 10. Count is n't a stock to consider again a 52-week high of $ 1.17 billion ADBE fewer. Shares trade at 29 times price-to-sales long-term palantir share dilution view, back from Q4 2020 impact the! Financial copywriter who has been heavily diluted since it went public in a recent article wrote... Clients make data-driven decisions spending budgets thorn in my side overview, Palantirs competitive positioning and...
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